A recent study published by Belgium based researchers Giovanni Strona and Corey J A. Bradshaw from the European Union's Joint Research Centre (JRC) indicate that 10 per cent of land animals could disappear from particular geographic areas by 2050, and almost 30 per cent by 2100.
The researchers obtained these figures from simulations carried out using supercomputers. Their role was to recreate a virtual planet by taking into account as many parameters as possible, such as the evolution of temperatures, the atmosphere, the oceans, and different biomes from current climate forecasts and those concerning soil degradation. “Although theory identifies co-extinctions as the main driver of biodiversity loss, their role on a global scale has not yet been estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020-2100) climate and land-use change,” they explained in the report.
The study further reveals that the decline in animal biodiversity under global warming will be most pronounced at the top of the food chain, where carnivores and omnivores are found. Felines such as lions and wolves will be threatened, as they feed on herbivores and prevent them from proliferating and destroying vegetation.
Spatially, the major losses of wildlife are likely to be in the “hot spots”, i.e. the areas with the highest biodiversity. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) currently lists 36 hotspots, including the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, south-western Australia, the island of Madagascar, the Horn of Africa, the mountains of East Africa and Arabia, the Guinean forest of West Africa (from Guinea to Cameroon), and the coastal forests of East Africa and the coastal strip between Somalia and Mozambique.